Examining the Decommissioning Arbitrage

The Hook That Changes Everything

While the industry debates grid connections and new reactor designs, Microsoft quietly signed a 20-year deal to restart Three Mile Island Unit 1, a facility that's been shuttered since 2019. In Michigan, Palisades secured $1.52 billion to become the first nuclear plant ever restarted after decommissioning. And in Illinois, Constellation just rezoned 524 acres around Byron for what insiders suggest will be the largest behind-the-meter AI facility in North America.

The pattern is clear: decommissioned nuclear sites aren't liabilities. They're the fastest path to AI-ready power infrastructure.

The Hidden Infrastructure Goldmine

The reactors at Palisades and Three Mile Island would be the first ones ever restarted after decommissioning. This isn't just a technical achievement; it's a fundamental shift in how we value nuclear infrastructure.

Consider what decommissioned sites already possess:

• Grid connections: 1-3 gigawatt (GW) capacity already in place

• Water rights: Cooling infrastructure worth £500m+ ($630m+, €585m+) to replicate

• Security clearances: Nuclear-grade perimeters already established

• Community acceptance: Decades of safe operation history

• Skilled workforce: Many former operators are still local

The maths is compelling. Building new grid connections alone takes 5-7 years and costs £100-300 million ($126-378m, €117-351m) per gigawatt. Decommissioned sites bypass this entirely.

The Decommissioning Arbitrage Explained

Here's what everyone misses: decommissioning doesn't mean demolition. Most shuttered plants maintain their turbine halls, cooling systems, and switchyards in working condition for decades. They're essentially power plants waiting for fuel.

Take Byron in Illinois. In August 2024, the Ogle County Board approved a rezoning of 524 acres surrounding the site. Constellation Energy (owner and operator of the Byron plant) requested a change from agricultural to industrial. This isn't random land development. It's a strategic positioning for AI infrastructure that can tap directly into existing nuclear capacity.

The arbitrage opportunity breaks down like this:

• Acquisition cost: £50-200m ($63-252m, €59-234m) for a decommissioned site

• Restart cost: £800m-1.5bn ($1-1.9bn, €936m-1.8bn) vs £8-12bn ($10-15bn, €9.4-14bn) for new build

• Time to power: 2-3 years (vs 8-12 years new build)

• ROI timeline: Positive cash flow in year 4 (vs year 15 for new)

Engineering Reality Check: Not All Sites Are Equal

Before rushing to buy every shuttered plant, understand the technical constraints:

Viable candidates must have:

• Intact reactor pressure vessels

• Functional steam generators

• Less than 20 years since shutdown

• No major component degradation

• Active operating licenses (or clear path to renewal)

Currently, only 12 sites globally meet all criteria. But those 12 represent 18 GW of potential AI-ready power, enough for 6 million graphics processing units (GPUs).

The First-Mover Advantage

Although nuclear has been gaining traction for AI data centre needs, there are a few key downsides, most notably time to power and cost: High capex requirements: Capex for nuclear power plants is estimated to be 5x to 10x that of using natural gas, unless you're restarting existing infrastructure.

Companies moving now gain:

• Pre-approved sites: Environmental assessments already complete

• Workforce availability: Former operators eager to return

• Political support: Jobs returning to economically depressed areas

• Infrastructure leverage: Existing roads, water, transmission

Italy gets it. Westinghouse proposed using decommissioned nuclear sites for SMR installation, targeting construction by 2030. They're not building from scratch. They're building on foundations that already exist.

The Counter-Narrative Nobody Discusses

The nuclear industry's obsession with new technology (SMRs, fusion, advanced reactors) blinds them to the opportunity hiding in plain sight. We have 30+ GW of decommissioned capacity globally that could serve AI needs within 36 months.

Compare this to the SMR timeline:

• First commercial SMR: 2029 (optimistic)

• Regulatory approval: 5+ years

• Supply chain development: Unknown

• Cost: Still theoretical

Meanwhile, restarting Palisades will deliver 800 megawatts (MW) by 2026. That's not a projection. That's steel and concrete already in place.

Strategic Implementation Framework

For infrastructure leaders, here's your brownfield development checklist:

Phase 1: Site Assessment (Months 1-3)

• Technical viability study

• Regulatory pathway analysis

• Community engagement plan

• Partnership structuring

Phase 2: Deal Structuring (Months 4-6)

• Power purchase agreement (PPA) negotiation

• Restart funding arrangement

• Grid interconnection rights

• Water rights confirmation

Phase 3: Execution (Years 1-3)

• Regulatory approvals

• Component refurbishment

• Workforce recruitment

• AI facility construction

The Portfolio Approach

Smart money isn't betting on one site. It's assembling portfolios. Consider Constellation's strategy: Byron for new development, Dresden for potential restart, and existing operations for immediate needs. This staged approach de-risks while maximising optionality.

The Monday Morning Action Plan

Stop waiting for SMRs. Stop fighting grid queues. Start here:

1. Map decommissioned sites within 100 miles of your data centres

2. Assess technical viability using public decommissioning reports

3. Engage current owners (many are eager to avoid demolition costs)

4. Structure innovative deals that share restart costs for dedicated power

5. Move fast: only 12 viable sites exist globally

The Bottom Line

The nuclear-AI revolution won't be built on new reactors. It'll be built on the bones of the old ones. While competitors wait for SMRs or fight for grid connections, the winners are quietly restarting shuttered plants and capturing 10-year advantages.

Decommissioning arbitrage isn't just a strategy. It's the only strategy that delivers gigawatt-scale AI power before 2030.

What shuttered infrastructure could transform your AI ambitions? The clock is ticking on these brownfield opportunities.

Explore the full interactive analysis at atlas.vistergy.com?filter=decommissioned